Carl Tyler's Blog

1 - Back when Communism was trendier, Cuba scared us for two reasons: a fairly practical one (namely, that their proximity provided Russia a convenient spot to park some missiles pointed at us) and a rather silly one (the so-called "Domino effect", which postulated that Communism was an infectious disease that could somehow spread more easily from one country to an adjoining one merely because they were geographically close). The second has since been shown to be silly, the first no longer applies. I think we've been maintaining the sanctions ever since mostly out of habit... we still seem to think that sanctions can somehow influence dictators to change their ways without causing further harm to the very people we're trying to passively "liberate", but I've yet to hear of a historical example of that actually working.

2 - The driving factor is powerful political pressure, primarily generated by the Cuban community in southern Florida. Cuba is historically the most "Spanish" (read: European) of Caribbean nation islands and thus had more than its share of high-end businesses and businesspeople. These are the people who got screwed when Castro took over. They relocated to the US (primarily Florida) and prospered economically and politically.

You may recall that Florida is a strategic state for national politics -- hanging chads anyone? -- so it's tough to piss the Cuban ex-pats off.

Everyone makes a big deal that only when Castro's generation passes will reform be possible; it's equally true that only when the generation that got hosed by la revolucion passes will we be able to pursue rational policy vis a vis Cuba.

And yes, I think the whole thing is stupid and wish I could visit that beautiful historic place like everyone else can.

3 - Its really getting stupid. Even the mayority of Cubans exiled in the US are against it.
Funny enough the US allready exports foodstuff for some years. And a CEPAL paper estimated that cubans on the island receive every year about 1 billion of dollar from cubans in the United States, which is a lot considering the low productivity of the cuban economy.
The dictators archieved some goodness in education and health care. Unfortunatedly in the economy they have, education isn't that helpfull.
In 1997 I was for 3 weeks on that island. Talked a lot with locals. Before I didn't found the idea of comunism convincing, after the stay much less.
Nevertheless the embargo only gives the Castro Government the opportunity to blame the US for the permanent underperformance of their country.